Presentation Transcript

1. Upward and onward A study of Scots out-migration from a global city Allan Findlay, Donald Houston, Colin Mason, David McCollum and Richard Harrison.

2. Research context ESRC Scottish Demography Programme. ESRC RES – 342-25-009 ONS Longitudinal Study: 30048A

3. Background • Traditional flows of young, talented individuals from periphery to economic core regions. • London as a key global city. • South East England (including London) as the UK’s ‘escalator region’ – Fielding (1992), Champion (2004). • Transients and the global city – Conradson and Latham (2005).

4. Research aims: • Investigating the factors behind the declining Scots born population of London. • Comparing the occupational mobility of Scots in South East England with other groups and places. • Exploring return migration from the South East to Scotland.

5. Scots leave London Scots born population of London and the South East Source: CASWEB census dissemination unit. Migration from Scotland to Greater London and the South East, 1991 and 2001 Source: UK National Census one year migration data. Migration flows from London to Scotland, selected years. Source: NHSCR

6. Scots on the escalator Data relating to proportions of the English and Scottish born populations of England in socio-economic groups 1 and 2 at the 2001 census. Source: Calculated from the UK Longitudinal Study

7. Continuing career gains from migration to the South East Occupational mobility of Scottish and English born residents of England 1991-2001. Source: Calculated from the UK Longitudinal Study *expressed as a percentage of all people in each row of the table.

8. Log linear modelling of occupational mobility • Once place of residence is included, additional variance is explained by place of birth. • A third significant effect is evident involving place of birth and place of residence.

9. So why are Scots leaving?

10. Not in retirement but in early career Age structure of Scots returnees from SE (including London) by destination 2001. . Source: Calculated from special tabulations provided by GROS

11. Propensity to return • No relationship by NS-SeC. • Strong relationship by education level.

12. Destination selectivity by class and education

13. Attitudes to return • Educated Scots more likely than other skilled immigrants in South East to return to area of origin? Likelihood of return to area of origin, degree qualified in migrants in SE. Source: authors’ survey

14. Map showing location of the 4 survey areas; Lambeth, Merton, Oxford and Milton Keynes.

15. Conclusions • Declining Scots population of South East England despite continued attraction of career opportunities in South East. • Increasing migration (including returnees) to Scotland from the South East. • Many returnees are young, highly educated and in active employment. • Need for re-theorisation of service class migration in relation to global cities.